The next time your conservative in-law says a Republican will take the White House in 2016, ask him to put his money where his mouth is. Be sure to collect that wager from him come Election Day, too, because Democrats have a 58-percent shot at winning that contest, and with very safe odds of 8/13, according to professional bookies.
Yup, even though gambling on elections is illegal in the U.S., you can still do it all across Europe. Many bookie websites, mostly from the U.K., are accepting bets on which candidates will win party nominations, which party will win the presidential race, and who specifically will take the White House next November.
According to all of those wagering websites, Democrats are showing a royal flush against each Republican joker.
The moneyline wager for the progressive party overall, according to Odds Shark, is -140 (meaning you bet $140 to win $100), but a longshot +100 for the GOP. When betting in the traditional odds-are method, you’d have to pay $13 in your bet on the Democratic Party to win $8, says Odds Checker, while the GOP’s odds are 6/5.
In the primaries, it might surprise many that Donald Trump isn’t in the lead of all Republican candidates, and neither is poll-climbing Ben Carson. It’s Marco Rubio at 11/8.
And for the Democrats? Hillary Clinton is a 1/12 shoe-in, bookies say, while Bernie Sanders is a distant 13/2.
Here’s the charts for each party’s nomination, using Odds Checker’s data on Bet365’s and EasyBet’s recent odds:
As for who (among all candidates) would win the race overall, the betting odds are:
If you’d rather wager on the winning party, recall the Democrat’s 58-percent likelihood to the GOP’s 42, which is the prediction of PredictWise. As for the betting odds, Odds Checker lists the most recent calculation to be 8/13.
Don’t brush these betting-odds projections aside, either. Historically, these gambling pools are more accurate than political polls. A lot more accurate, in fact.
For example, the well-known and much-respected Gallup polls were completely wrong in projections of the last three presidential elections, picking the actual loser to be the winner in their final reports. Gamblers, however, enjoyed a 91-percent accuracy for those same races.
And while it’s never been legal to bet on elections in the U.S., it was still very popular in the last two centuries – and very, very accurate, too. For example, betting odds set by bookies were correct in 14 out of the 15 presidential contests held between 1884 and 1940.
So before you go citing any so-called “scientific” polls about the 2016 contest, you might want to just check on the gambling odds instead.
Featured image by Images Money via Flickr