Allan Lichtman, Professor of History at American University, has correctly predicted presidential outcomes for 32 years, using what he calls “The 13 Keys to the White House.” While this is very impressive, it’s also very frightening because Lichtman says that based on his well-proven test, Trump is the clear winner.
The keys, which are laid out in Lichtman’s book, Predicting The Next President: The 13 Keys To The White House, are a list of True/False statements which he has compiled while comparing presidents and election trends since 1860. He explains it much better in the video below, but basically, if he can say “True” for a particular candidate with at least 7 of these keys, the outcome will be in their favor on election day.
The keys are as follows:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
When asked how he had come to the assessment that Trump would win, Lichtman had this to say:
“We’ve never before seen a candidate who has spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He’s the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, “Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.,” he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn’t believe it. We’ve never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We’ve never had a candidate before who’s invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We’ve never had a candidate before who’s threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We’ve never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.”
“I think the fact that he’s a bit of a maverick, and nobody knows where he stands on policy, because he’s constantly shifting. I defy anyone to say what his immigration policy is, what his policy is on banning Muslims, or whoever, from entering the United States, that’s certainly a factor. But it’s more his history in Trump University, the Trump Institute, his bankruptcies, the charitable foundation, of enriching himself at the expense of others, and all of the lies and dangerous things he’s said in this campaign, that could make him a precedent-shattering candidate.”
Lichtman stresses that his prediction is by NO means an endorsement but that “it’s based on scientific fact.”
We still have 7 weeks to go in this race and based on Trump’s history thus far, we really don’t know for certain what might happen. So, the way to prove Lichtman wrong – and it sounds like he WANTS us to – is to get out and vote. Lichtman is adamant about this stating that “Nobody can be complacent!”
Watch the video below:
Featured image via screenshot