Nate Silver, the famed statistician who correctly predicted 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 presidential election and all states in the 2012 election, has released his primary election predictions through his website FiveThirtyEight, just in time for the Iowa caucuses which will be held in less than three weeks.
So far, Silver has only predicted (concretely) Iowa and New Hampshire, while getting a broad overview of South Carolina and New Hampshire. As time continues and more polls come out, Silver will be more able to predict other states’ decisions.
The numbers derived from Silver’s predictions are based on multiple polls (as many as 50+, including state polls and national polls) and other key trajectories in elections, such as endorsements, which do help candidates. However, Silver and his compatriots at FiveThirtyEight contend that these numbers may in fact change as the elections draw closer.
But here’s what we got so far:
Democrats in Iowa: Hillary Clinton has a 73 percent chance of winning, compared to Sanders’ 27 percent chance and O’Malley’s 1 percent chance.
Republicans in Iowa: Ted Cruz has a 50 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s (surprising) 26 percent chance. Following in third place is Marco Rubio with 17 percent.
Democrats in New Hampshire: Hillary Clinton has a 55 percent chance of winning, compared to Sanders’ 45 percent chance. O’Malley pulls in less than 1 percent.
Republicans in New Hampshire: Donald Trump has a 38 percent chance of winning compared to Rubio’s 23 percent. In third place is Ted Cruz, with 14 percent.
Although South Carolina and Nevada aren’t as concrete as New Hampshire and Iowa, FiveThirtyEight has provided a rough idea of how the elections in these states will fare:
Democrats in South Carolina: Hillary Clinton has roughly a 66 percent chance of winning, compared to Sanders’ 23 percent and O’Malley’s 2 percent.
Republicans in South Carolina: Trump has a 31 percent chance of winning compared to Ted Cruz’s 17 percent chance. Ben Carson comes in third with roughly 14 percent.
Democrats in Nevada: Clinton has a 50 percent chance of winning compared to Sanders’ 28 percent chance. O’Malley has less than a1 percent chance.
Republicans in Nevada: Trump has a 32 percent chance of winning, compared to Cruz’s 21 percent chance. Rubio comes in third 11 percent.
There you have it. After months of waiting for poll after poll, Nate Silver and his team have compiled a detailed and meticulously organized prediction. Again, nothing is set in stone. A week from now, Sanders could be up and Clinton down, or Clinton could go up even further, who knows. We won’t really know until February 1, February 9, and so forth.
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